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Once again we find ourselves navigating a tumultuous economy with twists and turns at every corner. As we enter the winter months, here is our quarterly update on the vacation rental industry.
Despite Destination Canada‘s tourism report on the country’s record-breaking 2025 summer and post-pandemic recovery, our industry has been anything but normal. The ongoing U.S.-Canada Trade War has left us in unpredictable times.
Consumer Costs: The U.S. Administration imposed heavy tariffs on Canada beginning in March 2025. As Canadians began boycotting travel south of the border, we saw a spike in Canadians booking accommodations within our country.
- Domestic tourism May to August 2025 accounted for $45.5B
- International visitors accounted for $13.5B
Source: Canadian Tourism Data Collective
Unemployment: We began 2024 with an unemployment rate of 5.6% and ended the year at 6.6%. We’ve risen to an unemployment rate of 7.1% as of September 2025. With announcements of plant closures and shift cuts, we had a wave of cancellations due to job losses.
Revenue: Overall, Canada’s tourism industry had a 6% year over year performance increase and generated a record-breaking $59B in revenue from May to August 2025.
- Atlantic Canada had the highest growth rate
- National hotel occupancy reached 80.7% in August 2025
For Homeowners
Predicting the direction of the industry remains challenging.
Prince Edward County
- 2025 started out in line with 2024, before falling behind in spring until we approached summer, where it got back to even with 2024.
- September has fallen behind, as will October, and likely November and December.
Graph 1. Adjusted occupancy rates in Prince Edward County compared to previous years
Ottawa/Gatineau
- Much of the same trends seen in PEC, but not quite reaching the occupancy rates of summer 2024.
Graph 2. Adjusted occupancy rates in Ottawa/Gatineau compared to previous years
Key Takeaways
- While local travel boomed this summer, it was not enough to offset the decline in American tourists to Canada (-6%) and local job losses in Ontario and Quebec.
- Trade uncertainty is creating further instability for many industries and jobs.
- Those with the means continue to travel and spend freely as larger properties continue to get solid bookings a year in advance.
- In Q2 2025, Tourism GDP growth outpaced every sector in Canada (Statistics Canada, Gross Domestic Product by Industry – National (Table 36-10-0449-01).
Success For The Year Ahead
While current economic challenges may continue to hamper travel demand, there are potential positives that may play out.
- We may find ourselves signing a trade agreement with the U.S. that is of benefit to Canada.
- Depending on how big the nation-building projects that the government is announcing, and how fast they can begin, there is a real possibility they could jump start the economy in a meaningful way.
- The travel-local sentiment could be here to stay. If American tourism returns to pre-2025 levels, it could significantly benefit Canada – especially if paired with continued growth in domestic travel.
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All statistics mentioned in this post are from Destination Canada, a Crown corporation wholly owned by the Government of Canada, and Breathe Vacation Rentals.